Brazil’s regulated gambling industry is sounding the alarm. This comes after the Senate plenary approved a 15% tax on player deposits. Operators fear this move will push bettors toward unlicensed platforms. The tax was included in the Antifaction Bill, a wide-reaching measure aimed at strengthening penalties against criminal organisations. Senators passed the bill with a 64-0 vote. They have sent the text back to the Chamber of Deputies for further review before it reaches the president for final approval.
New CIDE-Bets Tax Expected to Raise BRL30 Billion
The newly created CIDE-Bets tax will direct revenue to the National Security Public Fund. Lawmakers estimate annual collections of around BRL30 billion (US$5.5 billion). The bill also revives the RERCT Litígio Zero Bets program. This program requires licensed operators to pay a 15% retroactive tax on gambling activity from 2018 to 2024. This is prior to the regulated market launching on 1 January 2025.
Industry Says Deposit Tax Will Fuel Black Market
Regulated operators warn that taxing player deposits will drive consumers away from legal platforms. They will move into the arms of illegal sites. Colombia’s recent experience is frequently cited as a warning sign. Earlier this year, Colombia introduced a 19% VAT on player deposits. The country’s gaming trade body Fecoljuegos reported a 30% drop in online GGR within two months. According to the group, the tax made legal play more expensive. It pushed bettors toward unregulated sites that apply no fees or safeguards. Brazil’s own industry leaders believe the same pattern will unfold locally. The Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR) estimates that as much as 51% of Brazil’s current market already operates illegally. The new tax will widen that gap further.
IBJR: “Direct Incentive to Migrate to the Illegal Market”
The IBJR warned that the 15% tax effectively reduces the value of every legal deposit. If a bettor deposits BRL100 on a licensed platform, only BRL85 becomes usable. Illegal operators, however, return the full amount. This gives them a sharp competitive edge. The group also argued that the government’s projection of BRL30 billion in annual revenue is unrealistic. The regulated sector’s current revenue sits around BRL36 billion. Therefore, it is mathematically impossible for the state to collect almost the entire value of the formal market. IBJR stated that such expectations “make formal economic activity unviable” and threaten the long-term sustainability of Brazil’s regulated ecosystem.
Gradual Tax Increase Bill Faces New Delays
Another tax proposal, PL 5,473/2025, is also encountering resistance. The bill aims to gradually raise the gambling tax rate from 12% to 15% in 2026 and 2027. It will reach 18% in 2028. Although the Economic Affairs Committee approved it, 19 senators submitted an appeal to send it to the plenary for additional scrutiny. The appeal met the required threshold, delaying its progress and reducing the likelihood of approval before the government recess later this month.
A Market at a Crossroads
Brazil’s regulated gambling industry entered 2025 with strong expectations for growth and consumer protection. However, the introduction of a deposit tax and the push for retrospective payments have generated significant uncertainty. Operators argue that these measures will strengthen the black market, weaken compliance-focused companies, and jeopardize the regulatory model the government worked to build. As lawmakers continue debating the Antifaction Bill and the gradual tax increase, the future direction of Brazil’s betting market remains in the balance.
