After shaking up the US market, Kalshi is now looking beyond its home turf, with Brazil emerging as a potential next destination for its prediction market platform.
Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of the New York-based company, confirmed that Kalshi is actively studying an entry into Brazil in 2026. Speaking to Brazilian business outlet Valor, she said the company hopes to announce concrete plans as early as next year.
From US Disruptor to Global Ambitions
Kalshi has become one of the most disruptive forces in the gambling and financial markets in 2025, drawing attention for its event-based contracts tied to major political, economic, and sporting outcomes. However, that rapid growth has not come without controversy.
Critics argue that Kalshi’s sports-related contracts effectively bypass state-level betting regulations in the US. Even so, momentum has continued to build. Earlier this month, DraftKings and FanDuel followed Kalshi’s lead by launching their own prediction market products in partnership with CME Group, signaling growing mainstream interest in the model.
Brazil Emerges as a Strategic Target
For Lopes Lara, Brazil represents both a personal and strategic opportunity. As a Brazilian national, she has openly highlighted the country as a key market for international expansion.
According to Lopes Lara, Kalshi is “just getting started” after closing its third fundraising round this year, which valued the company at US$11 billion. Following that round, the company publicly outlined its intention to expand internationally, placing Brazil firmly on its radar.
She told Valor that there is currently no comparable product operating in Brazil and added that the company remains in the exploratory phase. Nevertheless, she expressed optimism about announcing further developments in early 2026.
Regulatory Uncertainty Clouds Market Entry
Despite the opportunity, a Brazil launch would come with significant regulatory uncertainty. Brazil opened its regulated online betting market in 2025, yet neither the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA) nor the Brazilian Securities Commission has formally addressed how prediction markets would be classified.
This lack of clarity mirrors challenges Kalshi has faced in the United States. The platform has spent much of 2025 entangled in legal disputes with state regulators and tribal authorities. In late November, a federal judge in Nevada overturned a preliminary injunction that had temporarily shielded Kalshi from state enforcement action.
Elsewhere, Kalshi continues to battle regulators in states such as Connecticut, where it is suing after receiving cease-and-desist orders alleging illegal sports betting. Kalshi maintains that it operates as a federally regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and therefore falls outside state gambling laws.
Potential Resistance from Brazilian Authorities
Looking ahead, Kalshi’s entry into Brazil may face stiff opposition. The SPA has already taken steps to strengthen financial controls and consumer protections within the betting sector. Against that backdrop, regulators may view prediction markets with caution, particularly if they appear to sit outside existing licensing and tax frameworks.
Moreover, the Brazilian government is actively increasing the tax burden on licensed betting operators. If prediction markets avoid those obligations, authorities are likely to resist their introduction to preserve regulatory balance and fiscal oversight.
While Brazil offers strong growth potential, Kalshi’s ambitions will ultimately depend on how regulators interpret prediction markets within the country’s evolving gambling and financial landscape.
