Brazil has officially declared prediction markets illegal, with authorities confirming immediate enforcement actions, including platform blocking. The country continues refining its newly regulated betting and derivatives framework.
Finance Minister Dario Durigan and presidential chief of staff Miriam Belchior announced the decision during a press conference. The move followed a resolution by the National Monetary Council (CMN), which clarified which products operators can use within Brazil’s derivatives market.
Under the new framework, regulators exclude sporting events, virtual gaming events, and real or simulated occurrences such as political, cultural, or entertainment outcomes. These assets cannot serve as underlying contracts for derivatives products.
Regulators Begin Blocking Offshore Platforms
Brazil’s telecommunications regulator Anatel has already begun enforcement and blocked 28 platforms that offered prediction-style “event contracts.” Authorities also confirmed that they will target additional platforms as they appear, signalling an ongoing crackdown on unlicensed or non-compliant offerings.
Officials stated that prediction markets fall outside Brazil’s legal gambling framework and will not receive approval under any circumstances, reinforcing a strict interpretation of the country’s betting legislation.
Government Says Products Fall Outside Legal Betting Scope
Finance Minister Durigan said the government concluded that betting on random outcomes—such as weather conditions or similar events—does not align with Brazil’s regulated sports betting and online gaming laws. Additionally, he added that blocking actions are being taken to prevent uncontrolled expansion and consumer risk.
Since the launch of Brazil’s regulated online gambling market in January 2025, authorities have reportedly blocked around 39,000 unlicensed betting sites. This underscores the scale of enforcement activity already underway.
Regulatory Framework Limits Betting to Defined Categories
Regulators reiterated that Brazil’s gambling framework only permits fixed-odds betting linked to sports and online games. According to Secretary of Economic Reforms Regis Dudena, any betting activity outside these categories is considered prohibited.
He noted that prediction markets were effectively structured as betting products but presented under financial or derivative labels. This placed them outside the scope of regulation established under Law 14.790.
Strong Enforcement Focus on Consumer Protection
Officials, including Secretary of Prizes and Betting Daniele Correa Cardoso, stressed that licensed fixed-odds betting remains legal and is treated as a regulated public service. However, they warned that unregulated platforms pose significant risks to consumers. For this reason, they encourage users to rely only on authorised operators identified under the official bet.br domain.
National Consumer Secretary Ricardo Morishita also emphasised that illegal betting products create substantial financial risks. He confirmed that enforcement actions will continue against all non-compliant operators.
Wider Impact for Offshore Operators
Authorities clarified that any platform offering products outside the CMN-approved framework will be subject to blocking measures. This suggests that international prediction market operators could also be affected. It includes platforms such as Polymarket and others reportedly planning entry into the Brazilian market through local partnerships.
Brazil Tightens Position on Emerging Betting Formats
The decision reflects Brazil’s increasingly strict stance on gambling regulation as it seeks to balance market development with consumer protection. By explicitly excluding prediction markets from its legal framework, regulators have signalled a firm boundary between regulated betting products and emerging financial-style wagering models.
