Thailand’s economy is expected to grow in 2025, supported by fiscal stimulus and a strong rebound in tourism, according to Capital Economics.
Modest Slowdown in Late 2024
In Q4 2024, GDP grew 3.2% year-on-year, below the 3.9% forecast but close to Capital Economics’ estimate of 3.3%. Quarter-on-quarter growth dropped to 0.4%, down from 1.2% in Q3. Despite this, the economy remains 5% above pre-pandemic levels.
The slowdown was caused by weaker consumer spending and a sharp fall in fixed investment, reflecting both public and private sector strain.
Fiscal Stimulus and Wider Budget Deficit
Thailand plans to adopt more expansionary fiscal policies than many Asian countries. The government projects a 4.4% budget deficit for FY2024–2025, up from 3.6% the year before.
Tourism as Key Growth Driver
The government targets 39 million international tourists in 2025, aiming for a 7.5% revenue increase. Plans focus on sustainable tourism and better visitor experiences.
To boost recovery further, a casino legalization bill has been approved by the Cabinet. Modeled after Singapore’s system, it awaits legislative approval.
Economic Impact of Casino Bill
Legal casinos could increase tourism by 5–10% and create up to 15,000 jobs. The move also seeks to reduce illegal gambling and attract foreign investment.
Outlook for 2025
With these measures, Thailand is well-positioned to accelerate growth and strengthen its role in the regional economy.
