The growing popularity of baccarat side bets across Asia is creating new challenges for casinos. Some advantage players are using artificial intelligence (AI) to identify betting opportunities with a mathematical edge.
According to casino analytics consultancy Differential Labs, AI-assisted play is increasingly affecting casino win rates. It is also becoming harder to detect across both land-based and online gaming platforms. The consultancy estimates that advantage play could cost Asian casino operators US$500 million to US$700 million annually.
Side Bets Drive Baccarat Revenue
Although side bets account for only around 5% of betting volume, they can generate between 40% and 60% of baccarat revenue at some casinos. This makes them an important source of income. At the same time, they create opportunities for skilled players.
The issue initially became more visible online, where automated tools and bots are widely used. However, Differential Labs says the trend is now extending to physical casinos. This is happening particularly across Asia, as smart table technology enables more diverse side-bet formats.
AI Makes Advantage Play More Efficient
AI-assisted counting allows players to monitor multiple side bets simultaneously and focus their wagers when the expected value becomes favourable. Differential Labs refers to this strategy as portfolio counting, which can potentially generate significantly higher returns than flat-betting.
For example, the consultancy found that counting multiple bets could increase the number of favourable opportunities available during a baccarat shoe. In one Super Lucky Seven example, portfolio counting generated a higher expected return. It also significantly increased the likelihood of finishing a shoe profitably.
High-Risk Side Bets Identified
Differential Labs identified High Tie-0, High Tie-3, High Tie-9 and High Tie-8 among the side bets that present greater advantage-play risks. Dragon Seven and Four Card Tie were also highlighted. Meanwhile, Macau’s Monkey/No Monkey was described as relatively easy to count.
By contrast, bets such as Lucky Six, Pair Plus, Small Tiger and Super Lucky Seven were considered more difficult to exploit consistently because of their volatility.
Casinos Explore AI-Based Detection
The use of AI-assisted counting has reportedly increased since 2021, prompting casinos to consider stronger detection methods. Differential Labs suggests that AI could also become part of the solution by identifying unusual betting patterns across multiple tables.
Rather than relying solely on restrictions or additional game friction, operators could use AI-driven monitoring and bet-level analytics. toThis would help detect potential advantage play earlier and at greater scale.
