Brazil’s ban on licensed online gambling could push approximately 21.6 million bettors towards offshore platforms, according to gaming market intelligence firm Blask. The estimate draws on player behaviour following India’s 2025 online gaming ban and early data from Brazil.
Blask Projects Offshore Market Shift
Brazil introduced a provisional measure on September 25, 2026, banning fixed-odds sports betting and online casino gaming. Licensed operators had to stop accepting deposits immediately, and their websites and applications went offline on October 6.
According to Blask, Brazil’s regulated online gambling market generated approximately US$6.6 billion in gross gaming revenue (GGR) in 2025, following its official launch in January that year.
Blask estimates that around 86% of Brazil’s 25.2 million legal bettors could continue gambling despite the ban, primarily through unlicensed offshore platforms. Its forecast draws on India’s experience, where 62.9% of users who previously accessed domestic real-money gaming platforms continued gambling three months after the August 2025 prohibition, mostly through offshore websites.
Early Data Shows Offshore Traffic Stability
Blask’s Brazilian monitoring panel showed that visits to licensed gambling websites had fallen 73.5% below normal levels by October 1. Search demand for licensed brands also declined by more than 80% in early October.
Meanwhile, traffic to unlicensed platforms remained within 11% of normal levels during the monitoring period. However, the company cautioned that the early figures did not yet demonstrate a large-scale shift to offshore operators.
Among 5,970 monitored users who had previously visited only licensed platforms, 6.7% accessed an unlicensed website during the first week after the ban, compared with 5.1% in a typical week.
Ban Raises Economic and Regulatory Concerns
Blask estimated that licensed operators paid approximately US$1.8 billion in federal betting taxes in 2025 and US$456 million in licence fees for five-year authorisations. The regulated sector also supported around 15,500 jobs, including 10,000 direct positions.
Jeffrey Haas, chairman of Blask’s board of advisors, warned that closing a legal market would not necessarily eliminate gambling demand and could shift activity and revenue to offshore operators.
The prohibition remains subject to congressional approval and faces legal challenges from industry groups before Brazil’s Supreme Court. Blask stressed that its forecast remains a projection based partly on India’s experience, while its Brazilian data covers only the initial period following the restrictions.
