Israeli authorities have launched an investigation into a large wager on Polymarket that accurately predicted a United States strike on Iran. The bet forecast that the attack would occur on 28 February. This prediction ultimately proved correct. As a result, it generated an estimated $430,000 in profit for the account behind the trade.
The wager was placed by an account identified as “Magamyman,” a username that appears to reference the “Make America Great Again” political slogan associated with Donald Trump. As a result, the timing and scale of the trade have drawn significant attention from investigators in both Israel and the United States.
Authorities Examine Possible Insider Information
According to reports from Israeli broadcaster Channel 12, investigators are assessing whether the trader may have had access to sensitive military information before the strike occurred. Meanwhile, officials are examining the account’s activity. They seek to determine whether the prediction was based on insider knowledge or simply a coincidence.
Scrutiny intensified after analysts discovered that the same account had previously made several accurate predictions related to Middle Eastern military developments. One notable example occurred in 2024. In that instance, the account correctly predicted that Israel would launch a strike on Iran on 26 October. Security officials later confirmed that approval for that operation had occurred only days before the attack.
Furthermore, the repeated accuracy of these predictions has raised concerns that someone may have exploited classified military planning for financial gain through prediction markets.
Prediction Markets Face Growing Scrutiny
The investigation also comes amid wider controversy surrounding geopolitical speculation on prediction platforms. For example, Polymarket recently faced criticism after briefly hosting a market that allowed users to bet on the likelihood of a nuclear strike. That market was removed within hours following public backlash.
Meanwhile, data from Israeli financial outlet Globes shows that users have wagered roughly $529 million across markets predicting when the conflict would begin. Notably, traders placed around $90 million on 28 February—the same date the strike ultimately occurred.
In another controversial prediction, the same account reportedly wagered $553,000 on the possibility that Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, would lose power shortly before a recent escalation in the region.
Blockchain Trails May Reveal Identity
Although the identity behind the Magamyman account remains unknown, investigators believe multiple mechanisms could uncover the individual responsible. Transactions on prediction platforms typically involve cryptocurrencies transferred from exchanges that enforce Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements.
Authorities may request transaction records, wallet addresses, and account logs from Polymarket. Blockchain analysis could then link the activity to exchanges or wallets associated with identifiable users.
Additionally, investigators could obtain IP address and device data from platform servers to trace the origin of the account’s activity. Such measures could help identify the internet service provider or geographic location used to access the platform.
Legal Framework and Cross-Border Powers
If authorities determine that the user exploited confidential military information, the case could fall under Israel’s Counter Terror Law of 2016. The Shin Bet and the National Bureau for Counter Terror Financing enforce this law and have the power to freeze assets, seize cryptocurrency wallets, and compel information disclosure.
Amendment 13 to Israel’s Protection of Privacy Law, which took effect in August 2025, provides additional legal authority. The reform allows investigators to pursue data held by foreign companies when Israeli residents are involved.
As the investigation unfolds, the case is likely to intensify debates around prediction markets, national security, and the potential misuse of insider information in financial speculation.
