Macau’s May Golden Week delivered a pleasant surprise for gaming operators and analysts, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) rising approximately 10% year-on-year and visitation soaring by 41%. The strong performance has prompted analysts to revise their May forecasts upward.
Seaport Research Partners Senior Analyst Vitaly Umansky described the results as “encouraging,” though he cautioned that much of the surge might reflect “brought-forward demand.” He emphasized that the coming weeks will be “critical” in gauging whether momentum can continue. If daily GGR maintains an average of MOP620–625 million (around US$78 million), Umansky now expects May GGR to grow 5.3% year-on-year.
He added that sustained strength through June—a historically weak month—could trigger upward revisions to 2025 GGR estimates. Seaport initially projected a 3.4% GGR increase for FY25, but that may rise if positive trends hold.
Umansky noted a shift in visitor behavior, with premium players now staying longer during holiday periods. Still, he warned that Macau’s current tourist mix leans too heavily on low-spending, day-trip visitors, which creates congestion without boosting revenue.
He called on the government to refocus efforts on attracting high-value, overnight tourists from mainland China’s upper and middle classes. However, rising travel costs, a weak Chinese yuan, and poor consumer sentiment continue to challenge growth.
Among Macau-listed operators, Umansky sees Las Vegas Sands (and Sands China) and Galaxy as undervalued and well-positioned for second-half gains. In contrast, he gave SJM a “Sell” rating, citing high debt, unclear satellite business prospects, and weak market share potential.
