Thailand’s rising political tensions are expected to disrupt major government projects, including the highly anticipated entertainment and casino complex. As a result, China Galaxy Securities (CGS) has revised its 2025 Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index target downward from 1,530 to 1,380 points, according to a report by The Bangkok Post.
Kasem Prunratanamala, head of research at CGS International Securities, noted that a no-confidence debate against Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is likely to take place in late March, following a motion filed by opposition parties. While CGS predicts that the prime minister will withstand the challenge, underlying conflicts between the ruling Pheu Thai Party and its key coalition partner, the Bhumjaithai Party, may create prolonged political instability, weighing on investor confidence.
These uncertainties could slow down crucial government initiatives, particularly the planned entertainment complex, which is viewed as a major driver of economic growth. Market analysts warn that delays or disruptions to such projects could dampen investor sentiment in the long term.
Beyond internal political strife, Thailand also faces external economic risks. Potential tariff measures from the U.S. government pose a threat to Thai exports, which accounted for 18% of the nation’s total exports in 2023, up from 13% in 2019.
Thailand’s trade surplus with the U.S. has expanded significantly, rising from 2.5% of GDP in 2019 to a record 6.6% in 2024. This growing economic dependence on the U.S. adds another layer of uncertainty, as shifting trade policies could impact Thailand’s economic outlook.
