Analysts expect the Philippine gaming industry to face continued pressure in the second half of 2026 as weak casino demand, slower tourism, and inflation weigh on market performance.
According to BusinessWorld, the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp. (PAGCOR) projects gross gaming revenue (GGR) to decline between 12% and 19% year over year, reaching approximately PHP320 billion ($5.2 billion) to PHP350 billion ($5.7 billion) in 2026.
Unicapital Securities equity research analyst Jeri R. Alfonso said gaming activity remained relatively soft during the first quarter, with the gradual recovery in tourism failing to offset broader industry challenges.
Land-Based Casinos Continue to Struggle
Land-based casino operators continue to face headwinds from subdued VIP gaming, slower growth in international tourism, and weaker consumer spending.
BDO Securities President John Tristan D. Reyes said the sector lacks clear growth catalysts despite an increase in Chinese visitor arrivals. While local players continue to provide some stability, overall gaming volumes remain muted.
Alfonso added that the absence of high-value VIP customers remains a major challenge for integrated resort operators. Bloomberry Resorts Corp., Okada Manila, and Travellers International all reported weaker revenues during the latest earnings season, largely due to softer high-roller activity.
Online Gaming Continues to Support Growth
Online gaming remains the industry’s strongest-performing segment.
Reyes expects operators such as DigiPlus Interactive Corp. to benefit from continued promotional campaigns and expansion into lower-income customer segments. The company’s established brand and ongoing growth strategy are expected to support stronger performance compared to traditional casino operators.
Inflation and Tourism Remain Key Risks
Analysts also identified inflation, slowing economic growth, and rising energy prices as ongoing risks for the gaming sector.
Alfonso noted that higher utility costs reduce disposable income among lower- and middle-income consumers, causing many to prioritize essential spending over entertainment and casino gaming.
Philstocks Financial Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco added that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could push oil prices higher, increasing travel costs and further slowing tourism to the Philippines.
Recovery Depends on Tourism Growth
Analysts believe a meaningful recovery will largely depend on stronger international tourism and improving economic conditions.
Higher visitor arrivals typically boost spending across hotels, integrated resorts, entertainment venues, and casinos, making tourism recovery a key factor in restoring growth for the Philippine gaming industry during the coming quarters.
