Sportradar’s betting data shows that Brazil’s dramatic Round of 32 victory over Japan produced one of the biggest surprises of the FIFA World Cup 2026, as the match’s goalscorers attracted almost no support from bettors.
The sports technology company processed more than 3.5 million betting tickets across its global network of 250 betting operators as Brazil secured a late comeback victory to reach the Round of 16.
Vini Jr. Dominated Player Markets
Brazil forward Vini Jr. was the overwhelming favorite in the player goalscorer market, accounting for 92% of the total betting volume on players to score.
Despite the strong backing from bettors, the forward was unable to find the net during the match.
Unexpected Goalscorers Deliver Victory
Brazil’s equalizer came from Casemiro, who scored his second goal of the 2026 World Cup despite receiving less than 1% of the betting volume in the player-to-score market.
The decisive moment arrived in stoppage time when Gabriel Martinelli, who entered the match as a substitute in the 66th minute, scored the winning goal in the 95th minute.
Martinelli also attracted less than 1% of player goalscorer betting, reflecting limited expectations that the substitute would become the match winner.
Betting Data Highlights Tournament Unpredictability
The match demonstrated how major tournaments can produce outcomes that differ significantly from betting expectations.
While star players continued to dominate pre-match wagering, Brazil’s progression to the Round of 16 was ultimately secured by two players who received minimal support in the goalscorer markets, highlighting the unpredictable nature of knockout-stage football.
