Citigroup has lowered its forecast for Macau’s August gross gaming revenue (GGR) to MOP23 billion ($2.86 billion) after gaming activity slowed slightly during the second week of the month.
The revised estimate represents 4% year-on-year growth, down from Citigroup’s previous forecast of 6%. The brokerage had previously projected August GGR at MOP23.5 billion ($2.92 billion).
Macau GGR Reaches MOP11.65 Billion in First 16 Days
According to industry sources cited by Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau, Macau’s GGR reached an estimated MOP11.65 billion ($1.45 billion) during the first 16 days of August.
The average daily GGR run rate reached approximately MOP721 million ($89.6 million) between August 10 and 16. That figure marked a slight decline from the MOP733 million ($91.1 million) daily average recorded during the first nine days of the month.
Nevertheless, the latest run rate remained above the MOP715 million ($88.9 million) daily average recorded in August 2025.
VIP and Mass-Market Segments Continue to Grow
Despite the slower weekly run rate, both VIP and mass-market gaming continued to show year-on-year momentum.
Citigroup estimated that VIP gaming volume increased by 12% to 15% month-on-month, while mass-market GGR rose by approximately 9% to 10%.
However, the brokerage noted that the VIP hold rate during the second week appeared lower than during the first nine days of August. The decline in hold contributed to the softer daily GGR run rate.
As a result, Citigroup reduced its full-month forecast while maintaining expectations for continued recovery in Macau’s gaming market.
Concerts Could Support August GGR
Citigroup expects Macau’s busy concert and entertainment calendar to support gaming activity during the remainder of August.
Several major events are scheduled to take place across the city, including performances by Lay Zhang at The Venetian Arena, K-pop group i-dle at Galaxy Arena, and FNC Band Kingdom 2026 at The Londoner Arena.
These events could increase visitor traffic and support additional gaming activity as Macau enters the final weeks of the month.
Macau Needs Stronger Daily Run Rate to Meet Forecast
Citigroup’s revised MOP23 billion forecast requires Macau to generate an average daily GGR of approximately MOP757 million ($94.1 million) during the remaining 15 days of August.
That target stands above the MOP721 million daily run rate recorded during August 10 to 16. Therefore, stronger gaming activity and increased visitor spending from upcoming entertainment events will likely play an important role in determining whether Macau reaches the revised forecast.
Overall, the latest estimate points to continued growth in Macau’s gaming market, although the slightly weaker mid-month performance has prompted Citigroup to adopt a more cautious outlook for August.
