Philippine tourism has yet to reach its pre-pandemic heights, but Unicapital Securities says the sector is moving “in the right direction” and could deliver upside for land-based casinos.
In its 2025 midyear outlook, Unicapital highlighted that the industry “offers a strong opportunity to rebound” if travel and hospitality players step up their efforts.
Back in 2019, tourism contributed PHP2.51 trillion (US$44.2 billion) to gross domestic product. More than five years later, the industry still falls short of that mark. Research analyst Jemimah Ryla R. Alfonso told Philippines Business World that accommodation services remain the sector’s weakest link.
Tourism Master Plan a Start, But …
The Department of Tourism (DOT) rolled out a five-year master plan in 2023 to boost visitation and improve competitiveness with other Asian destinations. However, Alfonso said the initiatives “are too underpowered to steer a full recovery,” stressing the need for a sharper brand, tourist-friendly policies, and seamless travel experiences.
About 5.9 million tourists visited in 2024, well below the 8.3 million recorded in 2019 and under the government’s 7.7 million target. From January to April 2025, arrivals still trailed pre-Covid levels by 27%, reflecting not just slow travel recovery but also infrastructure gaps that make visitor movement less convenient, according to Unicapital.
Putting Out the Welcome Mat
South Korea and the US remain the top source markets, while arrivals from China have dropped since the Philippines suspended e-visas for Chinese nationals in 2023. To diversify, the DOT granted visa-free entry to Indian and Taiwanese travelers this year. Air India will also launch direct flights from Delhi to Manila in October.
Tourism Secretary Christina Garcia Frasco expressed confidence that the Philippines will evolve into a “tourism powerhouse” under the 2023–2028 master plan. She cited infrastructure investments, including 700 km of new highways, the privatization of Bohol-Panglao International Airport, and the multibillion-peso expansion of Ninoy Aquino International Airport. Construction of the new Manila International Airport in Bulacan is expected to start in early 2026.
Boost for Gaming
Unicapital noted that rising travel volumes will boost gross gaming revenue at land-based casinos, particularly the VIP segment, while also strengthening the wider hospitality sector. With public and private investments in place, analysts believe Philippine tourism could eventually regain—and even surpass—its pre-pandemic momentum.
