Hong Kong authorities have suspended plans to introduce regulated basketball betting. They cited concerns that the move could drive greater participation in illegal gambling tied to the rapid expansion of global prediction markets. As a result, the government said the rollout will be paused while further studies are conducted to protect public interest and assess the evolving risk landscape.
The Home and Youth Affairs Bureau said launching basketball betting under current conditions could increase attention toward unregulated prediction market platforms. In particular, those linked to sports outcomes might get extra focus. Furthermore, officials warned that this could indirectly strengthen illegal gambling activity rather than reduce it.
Prediction Markets Seen as Growing Risk Factor
Authorities pointed to the fast-growing scale of prediction markets as a key reason for delaying the initiative. Government data cited global trading volume rising from $16 billion in 2024 to $64 billion in 2025. Meanwhile, monthly activity jumped from under $100 million in early 2024 to more than $13 billion by late 2025.
Officials also warned that monthly trading volumes could increase fivefold by 2030, with more than 40% expected to be sports-related. In addition, they raised concerns that regulated basketball betting could unintentionally funnel users toward unlicensed platforms.
A government spokesperson said the situation requires deeper assessment. He also added that new gambling initiatives should not proceed until the necessary safeguards are in place.
Legislative Framework Already Passed
The decision comes despite Hong Kong previously moving forward with the legal groundwork for basketball betting. In September 2025, the Legislative Council passed the Betting Duty (Amendment) Bill 2025. This introduced a 50% tax on net stake receipts, matching the rate applied to soccer betting.
The bill passed its third reading with 77 votes in favor, two against, and two abstentions. It authorises the Secretary for Home and Youth Affairs to issue basketball betting licences. The Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) is widely expected to become the sole licensed operator under a monopoly model. This model is similar to horse racing and football wagering.
Channelisation Strategy Put on Hold
Officials previously argued the plan was designed to reduce illegal betting rather than generate tax revenue. Estimates during the legislative process suggested illegal basketball betting turnover could reach HK$90 billion ($11.47 billion) annually.
The HKJC projected that legal basketball betting could generate around HK$28 billion ($3.57 billion) in annual turnover once mature. This could produce approximately HK$1.5 billion ($191 million) in annual betting duty.
In response, the HKJC said it acknowledged the government’s decision and will cooperate with the review process. The club will await further direction on any future licensing developments.
Why Prediction Markets Complicate Regulation
Prediction markets allow users to trade on the probability of future events, including political, economic, and sporting outcomes. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, where odds are set by an operator, prediction markets operate more like exchanges. In these markets, pricing is determined by supply and demand.
Contracts typically trade between 0 and 100, representing implied probability. If the event occurs, the contract settles at 100; if not, it drops to zero. Many platforms allow continuous trading, often using blockchain infrastructure. This enables cross-border access and raises concerns around anonymity and regulatory gaps.
Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have become increasingly prominent. In addition, the growing application of prediction market models to sports has intensified regulatory scrutiny globally.
Hong Kong’s decision signals rising caution among regulators as prediction markets reshape the betting landscape. This development creates uncertainty over how traditional licensing frameworks can effectively limit illegal participation.
