Japan is taking a different approach to prediction markets as strict gambling laws prevent platforms from offering real-money event trading.
Instead of allowing users to wager cash or cryptocurrency, several companies are introducing prediction services that reward accurate forecasts with loyalty points or virtual coins. Users can make predictions on sports, politics, and cultural events without risking money, positioning these platforms as engagement services rather than gambling products.
POYP has emerged as one of the most visible examples, while other companies, including IGS with its Signals platform and NERO YOSO, are also developing similar forecasting services.
Companies Explore Alternative Models
Interest in compliant prediction platforms is expanding beyond startups.
Gaming company Gumi Group announced in late 2025 that it is exploring an AI and blockchain-powered prediction platform that separates forecasting activity from player rewards. The structure is designed to comply with Japan’s regulations, which assess how value moves throughout an entire ecosystem rather than focusing solely on direct cash wagering.
Meanwhile, Polymarket continues pursuing long-term expansion in Japan. The company has appointed Mike Eidlin as its representative in the country and is reportedly seeking regulatory approval by 2030.
Compliance Challenges Remain
Japan’s cautious stance toward prediction markets remains evident.
In June 2026, cryptocurrency exchange Bitbank warned customers that participating in overseas prediction markets could lead to account restrictions because of potential conflicts with Japanese gambling laws.
As a result, local platforms are increasingly relying on advertising, loyalty programs, and third-party rewards instead of transaction fees generated through monetary trading.
A Different Future for Prediction Markets
Japan’s approach raises questions about whether points-based forecasting can deliver the same market efficiency as traditional prediction markets.
Conventional prediction markets rely on financial incentives to encourage participants to research information and adjust their positions as events develop. Without money at stake, participation may remain high, but the quality of forecasting could prove more difficult to maintain.
Rather than replicating crypto-based prediction markets, Japan appears to be creating its own category that blends forecasting, user engagement, and digital rewards while remaining within the country’s gambling regulations.
