Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) is forecast to increase 12% year on year to MOP20.5 billion (US$2.55 billion) in September, despite a slower start to the month, according to Citigroup.
The brokerage estimates that casinos generated approximately MOP3.8 billion (US$473 million) in GGR during the first six days of September, representing an average daily run rate of around MOP633 million (US$78.8 million).
Early September Gaming Activity Slows
The estimated daily run rate was around 10% below August’s MOP706 million average, reflecting the seasonal slowdown typically seen ahead of China’s National Day Golden Week in early October.
However, September’s daily figure remained approximately 4% higher than the MOP610 million recorded during the same period last year.
Industry sources cited by Citigroup indicated that VIP gaming volume declined 8%–10% from August, while mass-market GGR fell by approximately 10%–12%. The VIP hold rate was reportedly within normal levels.
Despite the softer opening, Citigroup maintained its full-month GGR forecast.
Events Expected to Support September Demand
The brokerage expects Macau’s upcoming concert and event calendar to provide additional support for gaming activity during the remainder of the month.
Scheduled events include performances by BABYMONSTER at The Venetian Arena, Super Junior-83z at Studio City Event Center and TWS at The Londoner Arena.
Macau will also host the World Table Tennis Champions Macao 2026, sponsored by Galaxy Macau, adding another major event to the city’s September calendar.
August GGR Increased 8.1% From July
Macau’s casino GGR reached MOP21.89 billion (US$2.72 billion) in August, representing a 1.2% year-on-year decline but an 8.1% increase from July.
The September forecast suggests that, despite the traditional pre-holiday slowdown, Macau’s casino market could maintain relatively resilient demand, supported by entertainment events and the approaching National Day holiday period.
For casino operators and investors, the performance of mass-market and VIP segments through September will remain an important indicator ahead of the traditionally stronger Golden Week period.
