Playtech has upgraded its earnings outlook for 2025, signaling that adjusted EBITDA will come in well above market expectations. The B2B gaming supplier cited stronger-than-expected trading in the US and Mexico during Q4 as the main drivers, helping offset ongoing regulatory and tax pressures in several key markets.
Earnings Guidance Raised Above Consensus
In a trading update published on 5 February, Playtech said it now expects adjusted EBITDA of at least €195m for 2025, materially above current market consensus of €177m.
While the upgrade represents a meaningful improvement, it still marks a sharp decline from the €480.4m adjusted EBITDA reported in 2024. Last year’s figure reflected a full-year contribution from Snaitech, before Playtech completed the sale of the Italian operator to Flutter Entertainment in early 2025.
The updated guidance highlights the scale of Playtech’s transformation into a pure-play B2B supplier, following its exit from direct consumer-facing operations.
Americas Drive Q4 Momentum
Playtech attributed the stronger outlook primarily to improved trading in regulated markets across the US and Mexico, where performance exceeded internal expectations in the final quarter of 2025.
Management said the Americas continue to outperform, reflecting years of investment in regulated jurisdictions. Although Playtech acknowledged that 2026 will bring fresh challenges — including planned gaming tax increases in markets such as the UK — the company said it enters the new financial year with solid operational momentum.
Executives also noted that rising regulatory costs remain a structural issue for the wider industry. However, Playtech’s geographic diversification and focus on regulated markets provide a degree of resilience.
Medium-Term Targets Reaffirmed
Alongside the upgraded 2025 forecast, Playtech reaffirmed its medium-term financial targets, including:
- Adjusted EBITDA of €250m–€300m
- Free cash flow of €70m–€100m
The company said continued progress in regulated markets supports confidence in both its 2026 outlook and longer-term strategy.
CEO Highlights US Progress
CEO Mor Weizer said the company’s recent performance reflects sustained investment across the Americas, particularly in the US.
“I’m delighted with the strong performance we saw at the end of 2025. We have been steadily investing across our business in the Americas for a number of years, and I’m particularly pleased with our recent progress in the US, as the benefits of our hard work start to accelerate and flow through to profitability.”
Analysts See Further Upside
Analysts at Peel Hunt said the update supports a more constructive view of Playtech’s earnings trajectory. The firm raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast by €4m to €215m, citing upcoming product launches with Hard Rock in Florida and the potential for a future partnership with Caixa in Brazil. Peel Hunt reiterated its Buy rating on Playtech shares.
Market Reaction and B2B Transition
Playtech shares rose around 2–3% to £2.87 following the announcement, reflecting improved investor sentiment. While the stock has remained volatile since the Snaitech disposal, the latest update suggests that US-led growth and regulated market exposure are increasingly shaping Playtech’s post-sale earnings profile.
