Macau’s casino sector recorded a slowdown in early February, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) declining in the run-up to the Chinese New Year holiday period.
According to Citigroup estimates, Macau casinos generated MOP5.0 billion (US$621 million) in the first eight days of February, averaging around MOP625 million per day. This represents a 14% decline month-on-month compared with January and an 11% drop on a daily basis.
Seasonal Slowdown Ahead of Holiday Period
Analysts said the moderation is typical ahead of Chinese New Year, a nine-day holiday that begins on Sunday. Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau noted that VIP volumes fell around 12% to 14% month-on-month, while mass market GGR declined by approximately 11% to 13%.
They attributed the softer performance to seasonal travel and spending patterns ahead of the holiday, describing it as a “pre-Chinese New Year slowdown in volumes.” For the full month of February, analysts project GGR of MOP20.5 billion, representing a 4% increase year-on-year.
MGM China Challenges Slowdown Narrative
However, MGM China CEO Kenneth Feng questioned whether a traditional pre-holiday slowdown still applies. Speaking on an earnings call, Feng said booking trends for Chinese New Year are “very encouraging,” adding that recent patterns suggest there is less of a clear slow period ahead of major holidays than in previous years.
Strong January Sets Positive Tone
The early February dip follows a strong January performance, with Macau GGR reaching MOP22.63 billion, up 24% year-on-year and the highest January total since 2019. Analysts described the result as an “opportune” start, supporting expectations for double-digit growth during Chinese New Year and the first quarter of 2026.
Tourism Outlook Supports Longer-Term Growth
The Macao Government Tourism Office expects up to 1.5 million visitors during the holiday period and forecasts 41 million visitors for full-year 2026, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Officials believe expanding non-gaming attractions and international tourism will continue to support sustainable growth for Macau’s gaming and hospitality sector.
