Rising political tensions in Thailand are expected to slow down major government projects, especially the planned entertainment and casino complex, which is seen as an important driver of economic growth. Due to these uncertainties, China Galaxy Securities (CGS) has lowered its 2025 Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index forecast from 1,530 to 1,380 points, according to The Bangkok Post.
Political Uncertainty and Market Concerns
Kasem Prunratanamala, Head of Research at CGS International Securities, revealed that opposition parties have filed a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, with a debate expected in late March.
Although CGS believes the Prime Minister will likely stay in power, tensions between the ruling Pheu Thai Party and its coalition partner, Bhumjaithai Party, may hurt investor confidence and delay key projects, including the casino complex.
Economic Risks and U.S. Trade Tensions
Thailand is also facing economic challenges from abroad. The U.S. government is considering new trade tariffs, which could impact Thai exports. Last year, 18% of Thailand’s total exports went to the U.S., up from 13% in 2019.
Additionally, Thailand’s trade surplus with the U.S. has risen from 2.5% of GDP in 2019 to 6.6% in 2024. While this shows stronger economic ties, it also increases the risk of U.S. trade restrictions, which could slow Thailand’s economy.
What’s Next?
With political uncertainty, economic risks, and trade concerns, Thailand’s financial markets and major projects could face delays. Experts say that unless political stability improves and clear economic policies are put in place, Thailand’s economic outlook will remain uncertain in the near future.
