Macau casino operators posted stronger revenue in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, rising operating costs tied to major events and regulatory changes limited margin expansion. Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau said expenses from the NBA China Games, preparations for the 15th National Games, and SJM Holdings’ satellite casino closures weighed on profitability. Without these headwinds, the sector would have delivered stronger operating leverage despite solid revenue growth.
Citigroup Keeps Positive View on Sector
Despite the cost pressures, Citigroup estimates Macau’s gaming industry EBITDA rose 13 percent year-on-year to approximately US$2.25 billion in 4Q25. The increase came from a 15 percent rise in gross gaming revenue (GGR) and 12 percent net revenue growth. Still, additional spending linked to event hosting and satellite casino restructuring restricted margin improvement.
As a result, industry EBITDA margins edged up only slightly to 27.5 percent, compared with 27 percent a year earlier. Looking ahead, Citigroup expects conditions to improve. The bank forecasts 7 percent GGR growth and 9 percent EBITDA growth in 2026. Consequently, analysts believe the market has moved past temporary event and transition costs. Citigroup continues to recommend accumulating quality gaming stocks, highlighting Galaxy Entertainment, Wynn Macau, and Sands China.
Market Share Shifts Across Operators
Meanwhile, market share moved meaningfully among major operators in 4Q25. Sands China led the market with a 24.5 percent share, gaining 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. At the same time, Galaxy Entertainment increased its share by one percentage point to 21.7 percent, supported by concert-driven traffic at Galaxy Macau and favorable VIP hold rates.
MGM China also gained ground, lifting its share to 16.4 percent on strong VIP performance at MGM Cotai. In contrast, Wynn Macau held steady at 13.2 percent. SJM Holdings recorded the sharpest decline, falling to 10.5 percent as satellite casino closures continued to disrupt operations. Melco also slipped, losing 0.9 percentage points to 13.8 percent.
Overall, these shifts show how regulatory consolidation is redirecting players and revenue toward operators with stronger core properties.
Earnings Performance Diverges
Notably, EBITDA growth varied widely across the sector. Galaxy Entertainment delivered the strongest year-on-year increase, with EBITDA projected to rise 31 percent to HKD4.24 billion (US$544 million). Market share gains and operational efficiency drove the outperformance.
By comparison, Sands China posted more modest EBITDA growth of 8 percent to US$616 million. Although revenue increased, higher costs linked to the NBA China Games and National Games activities limited margin expansion. Citigroup noted that Sands China absorbed a disproportionate share of event-related expenses.
Clearer Path Into 2026
Finally, Citigroup expects cost pressures to ease in 2026. With fewer event-related expenses and regulatory adjustments, operating leverage should flow more directly into earnings growth. As a result, the bank maintains a constructive outlook on Macau gaming stocks and anticipates a more stable profitability environment in the year ahead.
