Macau’s casino sector kicked off 2026 with strong momentum, reporting gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP 22.63 billion (US$2.79 billion) in January. The result marks a 24% year-on-year increase and the highest January total since 2019, according to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.
Month-on-month, revenue also climbed 8.35% from December, signalling improving demand and a stronger start to the year than analysts had forecast.
January Outperforms Analyst Forecasts
The January performance exceeded market expectations. In a 7 January research note, Seaport Research analyst Vitaly Umansky had projected year-on-year growth of 14%, citing easier comparisons against January 2025.
The upside surprise follows a softer December. While GGR rose 14.8% year-on-year in December, it fell short of the market consensus of 18% and declined 0.9% from November, raising some short-term concerns about momentum. January’s rebound, however, helped reset sentiment.
Full-Year 2025 Shows Continued Recovery
Looking at the broader picture, Macau’s casinos generated MOP 247.4 billion in GGR for full-year 2025, representing a 9.1% increase over 2024. The result also beat the MOP 228 billion target projected by Macau Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai.
Importantly, 2025 GGR reached 84.6% of pre-pandemic levels, compared with MOP 292.5 billion in 2019, underscoring steady progress in the market’s recovery.
Analysts Expect Moderate Growth in 2026
Looking ahead, analysts are forecasting more measured but stable growth for 2026. Umansky expects 7% GGR growth, driven by what he described as an “increasing wealth effect in China,” combined with higher travel spending and strong gaming propensity among premium customers.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank projects growth of 5.8%, while JP Morgan estimates a range of 5% to 6% for the year. These forecasts suggest confidence in continued recovery, even as growth rates normalise.
Market Structure and Game Mix Continue to Evolve
According to Macau Post Daily, the city’s gaming landscape has become more consolidated. By the end of 2025, the Big 6 operators ran a total of 20 casinos, down 52.4% from the peak of 42 properties in 2021.
Collectively, operators offered around 6,000 gaming tables and 12,000 gaming machines. Baccarat continued to dominate the market, accounting for 85.1% of total GGR in 2025, reinforcing its central role in Macau’s revenue mix.
Strong Start Sets the Tone for 2026
Overall, January’s results provide a positive signal for the year ahead. Beating expectations, delivering the strongest January since 2019, and showing sequential growth from December, Macau’s casino sector enters 2026 with renewed momentum—supporting forecasts for steady, sustainable expansion.
