Meta is reportedly exploring the prediction market industry through an internal project known as Arena, according to a report by The New York Times.
The standalone application is said to be inspired by platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. It allows users to predict the outcomes of sports events, political elections, entertainment awards, and other real-world events.
Meta declined to comment on the report. Meanwhile, sources familiar with the project said Arena remains under development and could change significantly before any official launch.
Points-Based Model Planned
Arena is expected to launch with a points-based system rather than real-money wagering.
Users would earn points by making accurate predictions. However, the report noted that Meta has not ruled out introducing financial incentives in the future.
A points-based model could help the company avoid some of the immediate regulatory challenges associated with real-money prediction markets.
Meta Revisits a Familiar Opportunity
Meta has previously played a major role in the evolution of digital gaming.
Facebook helped popularize the social casino industry during the early 2010s. It provided a platform where companies such as Zynga built large audiences through casino-style games using virtual currency instead of real-money gambling.
Although Facebook benefited from increased user engagement, it never became a major gaming operator itself.
The reported Arena project suggests Meta may be looking to play a more direct role in another fast-growing digital entertainment category.
Prediction Markets Continue Rapid Growth
Prediction markets have expanded rapidly over the past two years, attracting interest from sportsbooks, fintech companies, cryptocurrency platforms, and investors.
Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to trade contracts tied to future events. These range from elections and economic indicators to sporting events and entertainment awards.
According to The New York Times, the two platforms generated approximately $50 billion in trading volume during 2025. Their combined volume has already surpassed $130 billion in 2026.
The growing popularity of these products has increased interest across the broader technology sector.
Not Meta’s First Forecasting Project
Meta previously experimented with forecasting products through Forecast, a crowdsourced prediction platform launched in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Forecast rewarded users with points rather than cash but failed to gain widespread adoption and was discontinued in 2022.
The market has evolved considerably since then. As a result, prediction markets now receive mainstream attention during major sporting events, elections, and entertainment awards.
The experience gained from Forecast could help Meta accelerate the development of Arena if the project moves forward.
Regulation Remains a Major Challenge
Prediction markets continue to face increasing regulatory scrutiny around the world.
Authorities have raised concerns over insider trading, market manipulation, and the use of non-public information. These concerns are particularly focused on contracts linked to politics, business events, and financial markets.
The sector is primarily regulated in the United States by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Meanwhile, regulators in several international markets continue to debate whether prediction markets should be treated as financial products or gambling.
A points-based model may reduce some regulatory risk for Meta initially. Yet any future move toward real-money prediction markets would likely face close examination from regulators and lawmakers.
Industry Watches Meta’s Next Move
Reports of Arena have already sparked political criticism in the United States, highlighting the growing sensitivity surrounding prediction markets as they become more mainstream.
Whether Arena ultimately launches remains uncertain. Meta has a long history of testing experimental products that never reach public release.
Even so, the company’s reported interest signals that prediction markets are attracting attention far beyond traditional gambling and financial technology firms. This reinforces the sector’s emergence as a mainstream form of digital entertainment.
