The Macau gaming sector is set for a stronger 2026 as operators focus on cost optimisation, operational efficiency, and premium offerings, according to a research update by investment bank UBS.
GGR and EBITDA Outlook
UBS forecasts Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) to grow about 5% year-on-year in 2026, with a faster pace in the first half of the year:
- H1 2026: ~8% YoY growth, driven by favourable base effects
- H2 2026: ~3% YoY growth, reflecting moderation later in the year
The report also projects sector-wide adjusted EBITDA to increase around 6% YoY, an improvement from flat growth in 2025. While UBS trimmed EBITDA forecasts by roughly 2% due to higher operating expenses in Q4 2025, margins are expected to remain stable, supported by a steady competitive environment and cost optimisation efforts.
Operational Efficiency and Technology
Macau operators are shifting focus from property upgrades to efficiency measures and better reinvestment strategies. UBS highlights several initiatives supporting growth:
- Deployment of smart tables to improve operational monitoring and customer profiling
- Expanded premium accommodation to enhance customer experiences and promotional efficiency
- Targeted marketing and event strategies refined from post-pandemic learnings
These measures aim to support profitability and drive luck-adjusted EBITDA growth across integrated resorts.
Premium Gaming Remains Key
UBS notes that premium gaming segments will continue to be a central revenue driver, aided by:
- Enhanced marketing campaigns
- New and expanded hotel and suite capacity
- Improved operational efficiency and customer experience
Operators are also keeping licence-related spending commitments on track, further supporting profitability levels in the sector.
