US prediction markets have rebounded strongly after a post-election collapse, growing 256% between January and December 2025, according to Blask’s latest iGaming landscape report. The data indicates the segment is evolving beyond political spikes into a structurally expanding vertical of online wagering.
From Election-Driven Spike to Structural Growth
Prediction markets surged during the 2024 US presidential election, reaching a Blask Index high of 17.9 million in November. However, interest dropped over 92% in December 2024 once the political event ended, highlighting the vertical’s initial dependence on elections.
Blask reports that in 2025, user engagement steadily rebuilt, expanding into sports and other event-based contracts, showing a more stable and diversified demand base. Industry executives increasingly view prediction markets as a real-time probability pricing tool, shifting how users engage with uncertainty.
Market Consolidation and Competitive Dynamics
While early 2024 saw a fragmented landscape, by late 2025 the market consolidated around Polymarket and Kalshi.
- Polymarket retained the largest share through the US election cycle.
- Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated alternative, recovered momentum after legal approvals and expansion into sports markets.
Despite ten new entrants in 2025, barriers to gaining meaningful market share increased, creating a duopoly resembling other maturing online gambling verticals.
Outlook for Prediction Markets
Blask concludes that prediction markets are no longer defined solely by political cycles. The combination of product innovation, regulatory clarity, and growth into long-tail event categories has positioned the vertical as one of the fastest-evolving segments within the US online gambling ecosystem.
