Search interest in prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket remains high in several jurisdictions that restrict or prohibit their operations, according to new research from CasinoReviews.net.
The study analysed 12 months of Google Trends data from September 2025 to September 2026 across 51 countries, comparing search activity with the global election calendar from IFES ElectionGuide.org and dated regulatory developments.
Restricted Markets Show High Search Interest
CasinoReviews found that eight of the 15 countries with the highest Polymarket search share and four of the top 15 for Kalshi currently restrict or have formally banned prediction markets.
The research identified a correlation between regulatory restrictions and search activity but did not establish that bans directly cause higher public interest.
The findings suggest that geo-blocking may not fully prevent users from searching for or accessing information about prediction markets, particularly in markets where consumers can use alternative internet-access methods.
Elections Drive Major Search Peaks
Political elections accounted for some of the strongest spikes in prediction-market search activity during the research period.
Global searches for Polymarket reached their highest point during Peru’s presidential runoff on June 7, 2026. Another sustained peak occurred around Hungary’s parliamentary election and Peru’s first-round presidential vote on April 12.
CasinoReviews said these patterns indicate that major political events generate substantially more public attention for prediction markets than regulatory disputes alone.
Polymarket Shows Broader Global Awareness
The research also compared search interest between Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi generated a slightly higher search share than Polymarket in the United States, at 21% compared with 19%. Outside the US, however, Kalshi generally recorded single-digit shares across the countries studied, while Polymarket showed broader international search visibility.
CasinoReviews described Kalshi as more US-focused, while Polymarket demonstrated wider global awareness.
Regulation Faces Cross-Border Challenges
The study also highlighted challenges for regulators attempting to restrict access through geographic controls.
CasinoReviews cited Hungary’s IP-based restrictions, which the regulator has acknowledged can be bypassed using VPN services. It also pointed to continued interest in Polymarket in China despite the platform being blocked by the country’s internet controls.
The findings suggest that restrictions can limit direct access to prediction-market platforms without necessarily eliminating consumer awareness or search demand.
For regulators and prediction-market operators, the research highlights the difficulty of managing a cross-border sector in which political events, digital access and consumer interest can extend beyond national regulatory boundaries.
