This year’s Super Bowl LX offered a familiar boost for betting activity—but with a twist. Instead of driving sportsbook growth, prediction markets are now emerging as a key factor reshaping betting patterns.
Betting Stocks See Pressure
Bloomberg reported that Flutter Entertainment, parent of FanDuel, has suffered an eight-week slide—its longest in over 20 years. DraftKings hovered near its lowest levels since 2023 after a pullback from previous highs. Analysts point to the growing impact of prediction markets as a primary concern for investors.
Prediction Markets Gain Ground
Platforms like Kalshi allow sports-style contracts through federal derivatives rules rather than state-licensed sportsbooks. Analyst Jordan Bender noted that record trading volumes on prediction markets coincided with a roughly 2% decline in legal sportsbook handle from last year. Estimates suggest $630 million in Super Bowl prediction-market bets, diverting a sizable portion of activity from traditional sportsbooks.
Traditional Sportsbooks Still Strong
H2 Gambling Capital still forecasts $1.78 billion in regulated Super Bowl handle, with New York leading at about $172 million. The story isn’t about declining demand—it’s about where the growth is occurring, with prediction markets capturing a larger slice of the overall pie.
Slower Expansion Limits Growth
The easy phase of sportsbook expansion is cooling. Most states with clear paths to legalization are already live, and Missouri was the only new state offering legal Super Bowl betting this year. Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey noted that growth now depends less on expansion and more on competition and market share.
Mobile Trends Highlight Shifts
App analytics show Kalshi’s downloads in January outpaced FanDuel and DraftKings, with roughly 10% of DraftKings users also engaging on Kalshi. While DraftKings and FanDuel launched prediction-style products in December, their combined adoption still lags behind Kalshi’s traction.
Operators Split on Impact
Some executives, like BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt, downplay the effect of prediction markets, noting they attract more “sharps” rather than general bettors. BetMGM reported FY2025 net revenue of $2.8 billion, with a 63% year-over-year increase in online sports revenue.
Looking Ahead
Super Bowl weekends are traditionally measured by handle and headlines. This year adds a new variable: the role of prediction markets in diverting volume and shaping the future growth of sportsbooks. How that momentum carries forward post-Super Bowl will be a key story for the 2026 betting landscape.
